The Northern Virginia Economic Forecast

Culpeper Star Exponent

Business Monday

September 17, 2012

Jim Charapich

We are adopted by different areas of Virginia as part of their economic picture. Depending on the agency, data source, or perspective of the reporter, Culpeper may be a part of Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, or Northern Virginia at any givien time. I was able to attend the Northern Virginia Employer Advisory Committee luncheon last week to hear “The Northern Virginia Economic Forecast.”

The panelists were in my opinion “Rock Stars” of economic development. They included Dr. Gerry Gordon, President & CEO, Fairfax Economic Development Agency, Stephanie Landrum, SVP & CFO, Alexandria Economic Development Partnership, Jennifer Ives, Deputy Director, Arlington Economic Development Office, Tom Flynn, Director, Loudoun Department of Economic Development, and Jeffrey Kaczmarek, Executive Director, Prince William Department of Economic Development. The panel was moderated by the highly regarded Dr. Fuller, Director, Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

My objective in accepting the invitation to attend was to understand the outlook from the experts in Northern Virginia regarding how they see Sequestration and the affect that it may have on the Northern Virginia economy. Sequestration relates to a mandated reduction of Federal dollars spent. In a previous presentation to the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, I heard Dr. Fuller present information showing that Virginia is the largest beneficiary of Federal spending among the States. Thus, any substantial cuts would result in an uncomfortable impact to the Virginia economy, especially the economies of NOVA and Tidewater.

The panelists were not asked directly to address this question and yet as the “elephant in the room” several of them made reference to the issue in their presentation. Though each of the jurisdictions has slightly different attributes, there is no doubt that the federal government is a contributor to the economies. How large a contributor, emerged as the question being addressed in the presentations. The focus of the discussion pivoted from my expectation, that Sequestration will create the proverbial “economic cliff” in January 2013, to the diversity and strength of the private sector in Northern Virginia.

As a satellite of NOVA in this regard, we often feel the ripple effect of the Northern Virginia economy in Culpeper… eventually. I was encouraged by the strength of the outlook by each of the jurisdictions.Actually, I was very impressed with the focus on our competitive position in the global economy.

Dr. Fuller asked a final question, “Who is your competition?” – The answers tell the story…. London, New York, Silicon Valley, Tel Aviv, Taipei, and other global cities were on their lists. Given that the Town of Culpeper was originally called Fairfax and according to Dr. Gordon, Silicon Valley is now saying that they are “The Next Fairfax”, Culpeper appears to be on the global radar in very positive ways.